Every time Bitcoin’s price drops sharply, the same headlines appear: “Bitcoin is crashing.” “Mining is dead.” “The world is ending.”
But if you zoom out, and especially if you’re a small or home miner, the story is a lot more interesting.
Why Some Miners Shut Off When Price Drops
Bitcoin mining is a business, and like any business, it lives and dies by margins.
Large-scale ASIC farms operate on thin profit margins and massive electricity consumption. When Bitcoin’s price falls, their revenue (denominated in dollars) drops immediately, but their electricity costs do not.
For example:
-
Before the price drop:
- Mining revenue: $2,000/day
- Electricity cost: $1,500/day
- Net profit: $500/day
-
After a sharp BTC price drop:
- Mining revenue: $1,300/day
- Electricity cost: $1,500/day
- Net profit: –$200/day
At that point, continuing to mine literally burns money. Large operators with expensive power contracts or inefficient hardware have no choice but to shut machines off.
The Hashrate Drops, And That Matters
When enough miners unplug, the network hashrate falls. This is visible directly on-chain and can be verified using public data sources like blockchain explorers.
When Bitcoin’s price falls quickly, it’s common to see:
- A noticeable decline in total network hashrate
- Thousands (or millions) of ASICs going offline
- Reduced competition for those still mining
Importantly, Bitcoin does not adjust difficulty instantly. Difficulty only retargets approximately every 2 weeks (every 2,016 blocks). Until that adjustment happens, fewer miners are competing for the same block rewards.
That temporary window is where smaller miners benefit.
You can see that around January 23rd, when the BTC price began to drop sharply, miners started powering off.
At that time, the network hash rate was approximately 1,044,601,062 TH/s. That’s a huge number, but to put it in perspective, it’s equivalent to about 11.6 million Avalon Q miners (assuming ~90 TH/s each).
By January 29th, the network hash rate had fallen to roughly 835,022,644 TH/s, or about 9.2 million Avalon Qs. In other words, it’s as if around 2.4 million Avalon Q miners were unplugged in just one week.
Why This Doesn’t Hurt Small Home Miners
Low-power home mining devices, especially solo miners, are largely unaffected by short-term price drops.
Why?
- Many are already mining in lottery mode, not relying on daily income
- Power usage is tiny compared to industrial farms
- Operating costs are often negligible
For example, a small home miners like the Bitaxe Gamma 601 V2 consuming just a few watts might cost:
- ~$0.07 per day
- ~$2 per month
At that level, there’s no financial pressure to shut it off. Even during extended bear markets, the downside is minimal.
Fewer Competitors = Better Odds
Solo mining is all about probabilities. Your chance of finding a block is directly proportional to your share of the total network hashrate.
When large miners shut down:
- Total network hashrate decreases
- Your share of the network increases
- Your odds improve, even though your hashrate stays the same
For example, a small solo miner running at 1.5 TH/s might see odds improve from something like:
- 1 in ~6 million
- to 1 in ~4.9 million
That doesn’t guarantee a block, but it does meaningfully improve the lottery ticket you’re holding, without increasing your power bill.
The Bigger Picture
Historically, bear markets:
- Force inefficient miners out
- Reduce hashrate temporarily
- Improve decentralization
- Create opportunities for small, resilient operators
Once difficulty adjusts downward, mining becomes easier again, and when price eventually recovers, the miners who stayed online are in a stronger position
Final Thoughts
A falling Bitcoin price isn’t the end of mining, it’s a filter.
It removes overleveraged and inefficient operations while giving patient, low-cost miners better odds and less competition. For home solo miners especially, price drops can quietly be one of the best times to keep hashing.
The network doesn’t stop. Blocks keep coming. And sometimes, the little guys get better chances when the big players blink.